四川环境

为深入解析城市社会经济发展与资源环境承载力两者的关系及影响指标，以河南省安阳市为例，采用状态空间法，结合灰色关联度分析模型，评估区域承载力并深入剖析社会经济指标与资源环境指标间的关联性，识别区域承载力动态变化的影响因素。结果显示:2019—2023年，安阳市区域承载力均为可载状态，承载力指数从0.892 4波动下降至0.597 3;城镇化率、人口密度、第三产业增加值3项社会经济指标与资源环境系统关系密切，是影响区域承载力的主要限制因素;主要驱动因素为污水集中处理率、建成区排水管网密度、森林覆盖率。基于上述结论，为区域社会经济与资源环境协调发展提供对策建议。

To comprehensively analyze the interaction between urban socioeconomic development and resource-environmentcarrying capacity,the State Space Method and Grey Relational Analysis(GRA) model were employed in this study to evaluate regional carrying capacity, examine the correlation between socioeconomicand resource-environmental indicators,and identify key influencing factors driving dynamic changes in carrying capacity.Taking Anyang City,Henan Province as a case study,the results demonstrated that: From 2019 to 2023,Anyang' s regional carrying capacity remained within a sustainable range,with the carrying capacity index declining from 0.892 4 to 0.597 3.Key socioeconomic indicators-urbanization rate, population density, and tertiary industry value-added-exhibited strong correlations with the resource-environment system, representing major limiting factors for regional carrying capacity.Primary driving factors included centralized wastewater treatment rate,urban drainage pipeline density,and forest coverage rate.Based on these findings,the study proposes policy recommendations to promote coordinated development between socioeconomic growth and resource-environmental sustainability in the region.